Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 3, Brody Brecht

3. Brody Brecht (476 points, 19 ballots)

The statuesque Brecht — a 6’4”, 235-pound, 23-year-old right-hander — has taken on the mantle of becoming the Rockies’ highest-ranked (and highest-ceiling) pitching prospect. Brecht could have been an early draft pick coming out of high school in 2021, but he wanted to play college football as a wide receiver at Iowa. When that didn’t work out as hoped (due in part to concussions), Brecht concentrated on baseball full-time starting as a sophomore. He showed enough promise on the mound to earn an over-slot (by $250k) $2.7 million bonus from the Rockies as the 38th-overall pick of the 2024 draft. What kind of promise? How about a high-80s slider that most scouts consider to be plus-plus and a fastball that touches triple digits? The rub of course is below average control of the fastball in particular.

In his sophomore year at Iowa, Brecht struck out 109 batters (nearly a third of those he faced) but walked 61 (7.1 BB/9). Though there was some improvement in his draft year (5.6 BB/9 rate), it’s a major reason the Rockies were able to get Brecht with pick 38 rather than the top 10. Speaking of that draft year: Brecht again struck out a bunch of hitters — 128 in 78 1⁄3 innings pitched, which is 37% of batters faced and a 14.7 K/9 rate — while compiling a respectable 3.33 ERA.

In his first professional season last year, the Rockies sent Brecht to Low-A Fresno, where he was about league-average age. The Rockies kept Brecht on a pitch count (he didn’t eclipse 72 until his last three starts of the year, when he got up to 88 pitches), so it’s of no surprise that he also didn’t go deeper than five innings in 15 of his 16 starts with Fresno. Those 16 starts were split into two periods by a back injury that kept Brecht away from the California League for over two months, though he made four strong rehab appearances with the complex league team in the interim.

When he was on the mound for Fresno, Brecht showed the bat-missing stuff that got him picked in the top 40 of the draft. In 55 1/3 innings with Fresno, Brecht posted a 2.60 ERA (3.18 xFIP), 1.34 WHIP, 14.2 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate. Basically, 51% of plate appearances against Brecht in 2025 ended up as a strikeout (37%) or a walk (14%). Brecht’s final start of the season was his deepest foray into a game yet, as he threw seven innings while allowing two runs on four hits while striking out eight in 88 pitches in a valiant effort in a playoff loss.

Here’s Brecht in action for his second professional start last spring in Fresno (game action starts at the five minute mark, side views of his delivery are at the 14 minute mark, and slo mo shots begin at the 16 minute mark):

Baseball America ranked Brecht as the fourth best prospect in the system and listed him as the number two starter in the 2029 rotation (with the best slider and changeup in the system):

Brecht is a fireballing righthander with questions around his command and below-average fastball shape. A talented athlete with a prototype starter’s build, Brecht looks the part on the mound. … His fastball sits in the 96-97 mph range and has been up to 101 with hard cutting action that has made his fastball both a miss and groundball-inducing pitch. He throws a high-80s slider more frequently than his fastball, and over the offseason worked to add multiple shapes to the pitch. One is a shorter gyro offering and the second a breaking ball with more sweep. Whichever variant he settles on should have double-plus upside given his feel to spin the ball at high velocities.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Brecht fifth in the system earlier this month:

Brecht came into the Rockies’ system out of the University of Iowa, where he was also a wide receiver, with relatively little pitching development behind him, so it was almost like he was a high school pitcher in a 21-year-old college football player’s body. When he pitched in 2025, he was in the mid to upper 90s again with his four-seamer, mostly throwing that and the slider, but he mixed in a new-ish splitter that looks like a real weapon for him, and the Rockies have worked with him on tunneling his pitches to get more deception out of his delivery. His walk rate is too high, at 13.5 percent, as he tends to miss by a lot when he misses. He also hit the injured list for about two months with a back injury he may have suffered while lifting. (Shakes head in general direction of football.) He’s athletic with a loose arm, has the makings of three pitches and is still pretty young in pitching years. There’s serious reliever risk here, to be clear, but if the Rockies can make him a starter, it’s a high-upside package.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranks Brecht 3rd in the system as a 45+ FV player after ranking him 13th overall among draft prospects, complete with an 80 future grade on the slider (70 present), a 60 future fastball grade, and a 55 future splitter grade:

Walks have been an enormous problem for Brecht. He had more walks than inning pitched as a freshman, and 135 walks in 178 career innings for the Hawkeyes. He also had among the best stuff in the 2024 draft class, and has a rare combination of physicality and athleticism.

Brecht will sit 96 (he was 95-98 during instructs) and has touched 101. He has a relatively short stride down the mound for someone as big and athletic as he is, and his generic three-quarters slot has a negative impact on his fastball’s shape and movement. It plays well below an average pitch even though it has plus-plus velocity. Whatever can be done to help Brecht command his fastball or improve its movement will ideally be implemented without altering his slider, which is an 80-grade SOB that evokes Dinelson Lamet‘s upper-80s power breaker. Brecht also has a goofy low-90s changeup with big tail and fade. His secondary pitches diverge in such a way that makes it hard to stay on both of them at the same time.

Built like a marble statue at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Brecht hasn’t been focused on baseball for very long and also hasn’t yet been in a developmental environment that can max him out, though that might still be true because Colorado’s developmental track record for arms isn’t great. The gap between where he is as a pitcher right now and what he could be is very large. There is precedent for teams solving issues like Brecht’s (Carlos Rodón’s command was a mess, too, though maybe not this bad), and he has enormous upside if someone can. Those right tail outcomes are absolutely baked into his FV grade, as is Brecht’s risk. At worst, Brecht looks like a potential late-inning reliever who works off of his secondary pitches more than his fastball. He could be a three-pitch mid-rotation stalwart if he and Colorado can find better control.

Brecht was ranked 21st overall in the 2024 draft by MLB Pipeline and they rank him fifth in the system as a 50 FV player with plus-plus (70) grades on both the fastball and slider (and a 50 grade on the splitter):

Brecht’s fastball and slider combination are downright nasty when he’s locked in. His fastball sits in the 96-99 mph range and he touches triple digits. It can have good running action to it, though he struggles to locate it and it can straighten out. His slider is virtually unhittable, thrown up to 91 mph with a lot of horizontal and vertical action, eliciting a 56 percent miss rate last year. He doesn’t throw his low-90s splitter very often and he doesn’t have great feel for it.

The biggest hurdle for Brecht to clear will be his command and control, as he left Iowa with a career 6.8 BB/9 mark. The cause for optimism on that front — fueling the belief that he can develop into being a mid-rotation starter — is that he’s a premium athlete and is committed to being more than just a pure thrower. There’s reliever risk for sure, but he could also take a huge step forward with more insightful instruction.

Shaun Kernahan of Three Quarter Slot wrote this about Brecht earlier this year:

The raw arm strength is impossible to miss, and Brecht’s fastball–slider pairing remains one of the loudest pure stuff combinations in the system. The heater regularly climbs into the upper-90s with explosive life out of a three-quarters slot, jumping on hitters late and overpowering barrels when he stays on line. The breaking ball — a hard, cutter-leaning slider — is the true separator, flashing sharp vertical action and generating swing-and-miss against both right- and left-handed hitters. Athleticism shows up throughout the delivery, from the leg drive to the arm speed, and there are flashes of a power changeup with real dip that hint at a more complete arsenal.

The obstacle has consistently been strike execution. Fastball location wanders, command lags behind the raw stuff, and outings can unravel when he falls behind counts. Control grades remain modest and true command is still well below where it needs to be for a reliable starter profile. The two-sport background explains some of the inconsistency, but it also fuels optimism that continued reps and focus could stabilize the operation. If the strike throwing never fully comes, the fallback is a high-octane power reliever capable of shortening games. If it does, the athleticism and pitch quality give him a legitimate starter path with bat-missing upside that few arms can match.

In terms of pure stuff and ceiling, Brecht is by far the best Rockies pitching prospect. His slider is probably the filthiest pitch in the system and his fastball is possibly the best in the org as well. Of course, to reach that ceiling, Brecht will need to demonstrate sufficient command to get upper-minors hitters out and go deep into games regularly. If he isn’t able to do that, Brecht’s stuff still works in a high-leverage relief role as a fallback.

It’s an exciting profile to be sure, though of course the risk is high that Brecht busts to some degree. After all, he’s only pitched Low-A, walking over five batters per nine innings, and has yet to hold a starter’s workload over a full year. Still, I ranked Brecht third on my list as a 50 FV player as a raw high upside starting pitcher or late inning reliever. Brecht should move up to High-A this year, where perhaps some of those questions about the profile will be addressed. An arm like this is worth a little extra time to bake, so I’d estimate a 2-3 year timeline from now for Brecht to the big leagues (if he’s a starter).

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