Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 2, Ethan Holliday

2. Ethan Holliday (554 points, 19 ballots)

Ethan Holliday is a name that has been well-known to Rockies fans for a long time, if only from the connection to his father, Rockies great Matt — not to mention his brother, 2022 number one overall pick Jackson. Those connections made it extremely likely the Rockies would call Ethan’s name on draft day if he were available at pick number four, but the 6’4”, 19-year-old (as of this week) lefty-hitting shortstop from Oklahoma is much more than just a famous name.

Holliday was the number four pick and received a record (for a high schooler) $9 million signing bonus because he has plus raw power that should translate into games and good pitch selection while playing a premium defensive position very well. Scouts are concerned that Holliday’s size might limit his range at shortstop in the long-term as well as the swing-and-miss in Holliday’s game that accompanies his long, powerful swing.

Scouts are also concerned that Holliday wasn’t more of an elite performer in the summer showcase circuit where many highly regarded prospects travel to play each other. In high school though, Holliday was monster, hitting .611/.743/1.295, a cartoonish 2.038 OPS, with 19 homers and 64 RBI. He was named the Gatorade Oklahoma Baseball Player of the Year and Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year. In both of those awards, he beat out number one overall pick and fellow Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits.

As a pro, Holliday was assigned to Low-A Fresno, where he was 3.2 years younger than league average. In 84 plate appearances (all against older pitchers), Holliday hit .239/.357/.380 with two homers and four doubles (an above average 108 wRC+) with four errors in 17 games at shortstop. It’s a small sample size, but Holliday struck out in a worrying 39% of his plate appearances, though he did also walk in 14% of them.

Skyler Timmins of Purple Row broke down Holliday’s professional debut season last September.

Here’s some pre-draft video of Holliday at a Perfect Game showcase last year with looks at him taking grounders and batting practice:

MLB Pipeline ranked Holliday as their top draft prospect and earlier this year listed him 24th overall as a 55 FV player with a 65 power grade and a 50 or better on the other tools:

Holliday might have as much raw and usable power as anyone from the class of ‘25. When at his best, the 6-foot-4 left-handed hitter can get to it without a ton of effort. He already has strength, bat speed and leverage in his swing while continuing to add physicality to his frame. Worries about swing-and-miss cropped up when he was on the summer showcase circuit, and he expanded the zone too much, and there were a lot of whiffs during his brief pro debut, but he has the chance to be a solid all-around hitter with big home run totals. 

A shortstop in high school like his brother, Holliday is agile for his size with average speed. His arm works from the position, and he has decent actions, but he’s unlikely going to be able to stay there because of his range. A move to third base would make the most sense, where his power-hitting profile should fit well.

Keith Law of the Athletic (who ranked Holliday atop his draft rankings) put Holliday first in the system and 39th overall in MLB earlier this month:

Holliday was the No. 4 pick in the 2025 draft and probably the most famous name selected, thanks to his dad, his brother Jackson and years of hype around Ethan’s easy power and potential to be more of an impact hitter than Jackson. He’s a shortstop now, with really good hands and a plus arm, but he has no chance to stay there given his size and lack of lateral range, with third base the best-case scenario and right field a realistic outcome.

As a hitter, he has plenty of bat speed and the raw power is probably a 70, but last spring, he seemed to be trying too hard to launch the ball to his pull side, so his front side was flying open and he had a hole on the outer third as a result. Holliday struggled mightily in his pro debut, as the Rockies sent him to Low A and he struck out 33 times in 84 PA (39.3 percent), even having trouble against good fastballs and looking stiffer and slower in the box. While that doesn’t undo everything he did before the draft, it’s very concerning for someone picked that high, and at the very least, he’s going to need more time to develop than the typical high school hitter taken in the top few picks of any draft class. He knows the strike zone well, and even in that stint in Low A didn’t chase pitches out of the zone excessively (25 percent overall, 16 percent on pitches well out of the zone), consistent with what he showed as an amateur.

I had Holliday ranked at the top of the 2025 draft class, which was a weak one at its uppermost echelon, based on the 30-homer upside and good instincts all around, but the near-universal sentiment after his pro debut is that he’s a much higher-risk prospect than it seemed a year ago.

FanGraphs ranked Holliday 47th overall as a 50 FV player earlier this month after slotting him as number two among draft prospects with a 70 future raw power, a 60 future game power and arm grade, and a 55 on his pitch selection:

Holliday has absurd raw power and a long swing that has limited his ability to make consistent contact. He might need an adjustment to break out, and he has 40-homer ceiling if he does.

Holliday’s physicality stands out immediately. Four inches taller and a few dozen pounds of muscle bigger than his brother, Ethan has the strength and the build of a player in his mid-20s. He’s no stiff either, a fluid mover who should be just fine at third base given time and reps (he has played shortstop thus far but likely won’t stick there). He has a fast bat and there’s loft in the path, which feeds the immense power projection listed above. He even shows a little feel for manipulating the bat head and using the whole field.

But while Holliday hammers the ball when he does connect, it’s the lack of contact that looks most worrisome here. His numbers weren’t particularly good on the showcase circuit, and anybody who hoped that a cameo at Low-A would render that moot will have to keep waiting: Holliday’s .239/.357/.380 line in 18 games at Fresno is more than fine on its own, but 33 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances suggests that there’s a long path ahead. Speaking of long paths: Holliday’s bat travels a considerable distance from the time his hands get going. He has a long and deep load with a hand loop, and then long levers on top of that. Once he starts, there’s real venom in the swing, but right now pitchers are throwing pedestrian velo right past him.

Holliday will likely need to make an adjustment, either to the length of his path or in his load; in his current form, he just looks too vulnerable to velocity. The bet here is that Holliday finds a way to make it work. He’s so strong and talented in other ways in the box that we’re in on him as a potential star, even with red flags lurking. Consider this grade more of a reflection on his upside than our conviction in his likelihood to reach it.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com (who ranked Holliday second among draft prospects) rated Holliday in January as a 50 FV player, 66th overall in MLB and tops in the system:

Type: A polarizing player who could be an All-Star or not hit much at all

Some teams/scouts/readers didn’t look past Ethan Holliday’s solid glove, 65-grade power, pretty swing, and last name and penciled him in at No. 1 on their board. Other teams told me his profile “terrified” them and didn’t have him in the mix for their picks in the top 10.

With the amount of information we have on every top draftee and the similarity of most teams’ analytical models, this isn’t common at all. I wrote about this multiple times and more in depth, but the short version is Holliday didn’t hit well in the summer against top pitching then fixed a swing flaw but didn’t face good pitching after it. Teams don’t like having to take performance against good pitching on faith while some others are fine if the other pieces of the puzzle are present.

After signing, Holliday posted a 39% strikeout rate in 18 games, which is a small sample but also is what the analytical teams would tell you is the risk of ignoring his summer performance. If Holliday follows the path he did last year, he’ll dial in his mechanics to adjust for velocity at this new level — this is something Braves star Austin Riley once told me he had to do at each level of the minors — and hit in 2026 like he did in 2025, but the velocity he faces will be much better than high school ball in Oklahoma. As such, Holliday could either be a top-10 prospect in the sport or not in the top 200 quite easily at this time next year.

Holliday has a superstar ceiling, combining raw power, strike zone control, and defense at a premium position (he’s probably going to end up as the long-term starter at third base, but he can still play shortstop). That defensive utility is a big point in his favor vs. top PuRP Charlie Condon and was one of the reasons I ranked Holliday atop my personal list as a 55 Future Value player.

Much is expected of Holliday by fans and scouts — let’s see if he can pass the trials to come as he ascends the minor league ladder. It’s less certain than it seemed at draft time, but I’m optimistic. Holliday will likely be sent back to Fresno to begin 2026 along with fellow PuRP shortstop Ashly Andujar, where strong results could bring a bump up to High-A by the end of the season. If he’s more like his brother Jackson, Ethan could move through the system in two years, though I’m expecting a MLB debut more in late 2028 or 2029.

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