2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Virginia, UNC Trending Up; St. Louis Falls

College basketball fans were treated to a loaded slate of games to begin the week, as the ACC made a statement with several notable results. No. 18 North Carolina opened the week with a 77-74 win over No. 24 Louisville, while No. 11 Virginia delivered a dominant victory over NC State on Tuesday night. Duke added to the league’s strong showing, routing Notre Dame 100-56 — the Irish’s worst home loss since 1898. Both North Carolina and Virginia moved up in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament seed list. The Cavaliers climbed to the 4-line, while the Tar Heels jumped to a No. 5 seed. Duke, now 26-2 overall and 14-1 in ACC play, is the top overall seed in DeCourcy's seed list. The Blue Devils are joined by Michigan, Arizona and UConn on the 1-line. [COLLEGE HOOPS: Michigan Setback Sparks Lessons] Iowa State, fresh off a 75-59 victory over Utah, is the top seed on the 2-line. Illinois, Purdue and Houston are the other teams that make up DeCourcy's No. 2 seeds. The Illini will look to bounce back following a devesting loss to UCLA last weekend when they battle No. 2 Michigan in a Big Ten showdown Friday night on FOX. Kansas, Florida, Gonzaga and Nebraska make up DeCourcy's No. 3 seeds. The Jayhawks are fresh off a statement win over then-No. 5 Houston on Monday night, while the Gators, Zags and Cornhuskers are all in action Wednesday night. As for the No. 4 seeds in DeCourcy's latest seed list, it's Virginia at the top of the list, joined by Michigan State, Alabama and Texas Tech. Tom Izzo's Spartans have a chance to boost their tournament résumé if they can secure a victory over No. 8 Purdue on Thursday night. Here is a complete look at DeCourcy's NCAA Tournament seed list: No. 1 seeds 1. Duke2. Michigan3. Arizona4. Connecticut No. 2 seeds 5. Iowa State6. Illinois7. Purdue8. Houston No. 3 seeds 9. Kansas10. Florida11. Gonzaga12. Nebraska No. 4 seeds 13. Virginia14. Michigan State15. Alabama16. Texas Tech No. 5 seeds 17. St. John’s18. Arkansas19. Vanderbilt20. North Carolina No. 6 seeds 21. Tennessee22. Louisville23. BYU24. Villanova No. 7 seeds 25. Wisconsin26. UCF27. Utah State28. Saint Louis No. 8 seeds 29. NC State30. Kentucky31. Miami Hurricanes32. Miami RedHawks No. 9 seeds 33. Georgia34. Saint Mary’s35. SMU36. Iowa No. 10 seeds 37. UCLA38. Texas A&M39. Clemson40. Missouri No. 11 seeds 41. Texas42. Santa Clara43. Indiana v. 44. TCU45. California v. 46. VCU No. 12 seeds 47. Belmont48. Yale49. South Florida50. Liberty No. 13 seeds 51. Stephen F. Austin52. UNC Wilmingon53. High Point54. Hawaii No. 14 seeds 55. Utah Valley56. Austin Peay57. North Dakota State58. East Tennessee State No. 15 seeds 59. Portland State60. Wright State61. Navy62. Merrimack No. 16 seeds 63. Appalachian State64. UMBC65. LIU66. Bethune-Cookman67. Southeast Missouri State68. Morgan State And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's seed list, Auburn, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four teams out of the tournament, while New Mexico, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State and San Diego State are the next four out. Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.