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Before missing the postseason last year, the Atlanta Braves had made it there every year from 2018 to 2024, including a World Series win in 2021. They are, traditionally, one of the best and most competitive teams of the last 30 or 35 years, so watching them go 76-86 in 2025 and finish fourth in the NL East was unexpected, to say the least.
Make no mistake: many things happened last year that contributed to that record, mostly injuries, and their core is good enough that FanGraphs is projecting them to bounce back in their 2026 campaign with an 89-73 record and a divisional crown.
Atlanta Braves
2025 record: 76-86 (4th, NL East)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 89-73 (1st, NL East)
Superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. opened the season on the injured list while rehabbing from ACL surgery, returned in late May, and had another stint on the shelf in late July with a calf strain. Third baseman Austin Riley missed the last two months of the 2025 campaign with lower abdomen issues that resulted in core muscle surgery. Jurickson Profar was suspended for the first 80 games due to violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
Injuries also limited Chris Sale to 20 starts, Spencer Schwellenbach to 17, Spencer Strider to 23, and Reynaldo López to one. AJ Smith-Shawver required Tommy John surgery. We can go on. It was clear from the get-go that 2025 just wasn’t the Braves’ year. The roster depth is already being tested in 2026, especially on the pitching side. We will get there in a minute.
Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and catcher Sean Murphy will be out for the foreseeable future, until May at least, but the Braves are in good shape in the position player department. Drake Baldwin (19 HR, 125 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR) has become quite the asset behind the plate, and Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Riley represent a nice infield foundation. Kim’s pending return will add some speed and defense, too.
Acuña, Michael Harris II, and Profar make for an exciting outfield, but it’s important to note that despite completing a 20-20 season, Harris did put up a disappointing 83 wRC+ in 2025. He has the talent to bounce back, but he’s no sure thing. Mike Yastrzemski will also be in the mix, as they picked him up on a two-year deal in free agency and should play even more often than the standard fourth outfielder.
The 2026 campaign will be the first without Marcell Ozuna on the roster since 2019. His decline, going from a 154 wRC+ in 2024 to 114 last year, was also one of the stories of the season for the Braves, but he is in Pittsburgh this year, Atlanta having decided to move on from the 35-year-old DH.
The Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep injuries (surgery to remove elbow bone spurs) were particularly painful for the pitching staff, and even though there is a chance they return at some point this year, the Braves must plan to be without them. Chris Sale, Strider, and López are actually a great top-three on paper, albeit extremely injury-prone. One has to wonder if Atlanta will take one last look at the free agent market or at least at the post-spring cuts.
In case they don’t make any more moves, the Braves still have talent in the backend of their rotation with Grant Holmes, Joey Wentz, and Bryce Elder. They need at least one more starter, though, if not two. For the bullpen, they added former Padres closer Robert Suárez to pair with Raisel Iglesias and a bunch of relievers who are pretty good on their best days, such as Dylan Lee, Aaron Bummer, Joel Payamps, and former Yankee Ian Hamilton.
Despite what the projections say, the Braves might not enter 2026 as the true favorites to win the NL East. There are just too many questions on the pitching staff as things stand, and formidable foes loom in Queens and in the defending division champion Phillies. That doesn’t mean they won’t be competitive, though, and we have seen them take the division when nobody expects them to.
Keep an eye on the Braves, especially if they manage to add more impact pitching.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.